Europe Needs Protection From External Geopolitical Pressures

Global geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the protection of major states' interests in developing Africa and the growing threat of global terrorism, generate the need for the formation of protection mechanisms for each continent, since in every such confrontation there is always a stakeholder and an affected party.

Today, Europe risks turning from a continent dictating the terms of co-operation in different parts of the world into a victim of local and international turmoil. The riots in New Caledonia, a French special administrative unit in the Pacific Ocean, the closure of German and French military bases in Africa, the expansion of NATO borders, the growing number of illegal migrants and monthly terrorist attacks are only some of the consequences of the global geopolitical game.

Under such circumstances, countries on the European continent are faced with the need to rid themselves of foreign influence, stemming into dissatisfaction with government and declining living conditions. European leaders, particularly the EU, are aware of two major external threats: perceived Russian pressure, caused by Moscow's attempt to resist interference in its foreign and domestic policies, and a huge dependence on the United States.

Recently, European media have been actively promoting the agenda of a direct armed conflict between NATO countries and Russia. On such grounds, many politicians are building their election promises to supposedly protect their people from the impact of the Ukrainian conflict.

However, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it poses no threat to the alliance, whereas NATO's activity near Russian western borders is forcing Russia to consider retaliatory measures. As a result, growing concerns are pushing both sides onto a dangerous course of militarisation. European military and geopolitical experts warn that a confrontation would weaken both sides, leaving them vulnerable to a distant player on the other side of the globe – the United States.

Europe is already experiencing economic turmoil amid rising inflation and the cost of living, with imports of cheap Chinese products only exacerbating the situation. Recently, the former head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, published a report in which he noted the failure of the EU "as a political system."

The effects of the EU's economic policies are particularly acute in Germany and Austria. For the first time in 84 years, carmaker Volkswagen is planning to shut down factories in Germany, while Belgian Audi is being forced to close its Q8 e-tron facility amid relentless competition from China.

The companies themselves will probably survive the crisis, but the closure of the plants could lead to social upheaval. Unions led by IG Metal sowed panic in German media as the plants were located in Saxony, East Germany, where the Alternative for Germany party was gaining popularity.

The decision to shut down production could cause the government to lose popular support, which would eventually lead to a change of power. This, in turn, could lead to a shift in the political environment and the country's course, up to withdrawing military aid to Ukraine or allowing long-range missiles to hit Russian territories, which would make Berlin a direct participant in the conflict.

How US hypersonic weapons tests threaten European security

At such a difficult time for Germany, the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz is considering the possibility of deploying US weapons on German territory. In particular, the US plans to conduct joint tests of the AGM-183A hypersonic guided missile.

Lockheed Martin has also unveiled the fourth-generation AGM-158 JASSM XR aircraft missile. It significantly surpasses its predecessors in range, with the UK Defence Journal reporting that the estimated range is no less than that of the Tomahawk – up to 1,600 kilometres. Official data is not disclosed, but the US Army Recognition assures that the AGM-158 of that model hits targets at a range of two thousand kilometres.

Military experts separately noted the impossibility of transferring such weapons to Ukraine, as even the F-16 fighter jets received by Kyiv are not suitable for launching them due to the weight of the projectile. On the other hand, the deployment of such missiles in Germany poses a direct threat to Russia, even if NATO does not decide to join the conflict.

Recently, the press service of the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence reported on the international exercise Siaures krantai 2024 in the Baltic Sea. More than 700 servicemen from nine NATO countries, the US, Germany, France, Poland, Finland, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania took part in the drills.

The main purpose of the exercise was reportedly "to ensure the security of the Baltic Sea region and the territorial integrity of states, as well as deterring the enemy in the event of a crisis." As a result, Washington is expanding its influence on the European continent through joint drills designed to unite NATO countries and, consequently, link the region closely with the US.

Threat of military conflict

A global nuclear war could start the same night when the US decides to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with US missiles, former US Armed Forces intelligence officer and former UN weapons inspector in Iraq, Scott Ritter, has claimed. However, such strikes involve the use of the US encryption system, to which the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) do not have access. As a result, the deployment of the missiles would inevitably draw NATO into a military conflict, Ritter noted.

"This is an act of declaring war. In such a case, what could happen in the future would happen this very night – we would all be dead."

According to the analyst, in such a scenario, Moscow would be forced to use nuclear weapons, with not only Europe but also the United States as a target. It turns out that the White House's permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles jeopardises the security of the European continent. By discussing the use of such weapons, NATO countries assume the probability of direct engagement in the war, Ritter warned.

American missiles on the European continent

On 10 July, Berlin and Washington held separate bilateral consultations and issued a joint statement. By 2026, the US "will begin occasional deployments of Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) long-range firepower systems in Germany," the document said. The parties are also considering permanent deployment of Tomahawks, SM-6s and "significantly longer-range hypersonic weapons."

In response to the missile threat, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would respond immediately. Peskov's statement implies that the delivery of US missiles poses a threat to the security of European military bases.

"There has always been, you know, a paradoxical situation. The United States has deployed such missiles - different kinds of missiles, different ranges - traditionally aimed at our country. Our country has accordingly targeted these European locations."

Scholz also emphasised that Germany could refuse the deployment on the condition that the Ukrainian conflict ends. The agreement with the US is ostensibly designed to "guarantee that there will be no war," he added. However, Rolf Mützenich, leader of Germany's Social Democratic Party parliamentary faction, criticised the government's initiative.

"We cannot ignore the risks of deploying US systems. The missiles have a very short warning time. (...) The danger of an unintended military escalation is significant."

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned that Moscow would lift a moratorium on the deployment of US weapons in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region if US weapons were deployed.

On 6 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that the country reserved the right to mirror the response. The ministry said that the US had intentionally ruined the INF Treaty, which guaranteed international security and stability.

Back in 2019, the US deployed the production of land-based medium- and shorter-range complexes. Over the past year, they were deployed in the Philippines and Denmark, also as part of joint exercises. Washington began bringing the missile systems to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region under the pretext of drills with allies. However, this does not rule out possible testing and production of weapons.

Russia is well-protected

If Europe does become involved in a military conflict due to US actions, it is very likely to face serious risks, as Russia has recently demonstrated not only effective offensive weapons, but also reliable missile and air defence systems, including against the threat of nuclear attack.

In October 2021, Russia adopted the S-500 Prometey mobile SAM system developed by the Almaz-Antey Air and Space Defence Concern. It is based on the principle of separate tasking of different targets, including low-orbiting spacecraft. Military experts note that this is probably the world's only air defence system capable of effectively destroying hypersonic weapons. Moreover, Prometheus is supposedly capable of shooting down stealth fighters such as the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. In fact, the S-500 has become the world's first system combining the capabilities of operational-tactical air defence and strategic missile defence.

Questionable partner

Under such conditions, a military confrontation between NATO and Russia will inevitably result in casualties, with Europe likely to be the most affected party. Its dependence on US weapons raises the question of forming its own security system in case the US finds a way not to get involved in the conflict.

American leadership has already established itself as an excellent shadowy player in China, leading to a series of crises in the Taiwan Strait. In Afghanistan, the Taliban came to power largely due to the withdrawal of American troops from the country in 2021. Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip are also possible due to US support. In all geopolitical confrontations, the White House is guided mainly by its interests in the region, which makes it an unreliable ally.